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Incidence and risk factors for dysglycaemia in Asian-Indians: a 10-year population-based prospective cohort study
  1. Rahul Gupta1,
  2. Satyam Singh Jayant1,
  3. Ashu Rastogi1,
  4. Sanjay K Bhadada1,
  5. Anil Bhansali1,
  6. Naresh Sachdeva1,
  7. Sant Ram2
  1. 1Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
  2. 2Biochemistry, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, India
  1. Correspondence to Dr Ashu Rastogi, Department of Endocrinology, Diabetes and Metabolism, Post Graduate Institute of Medical Education and Research, Chandigarh, CH 160012, India; ashuendo{at}gmail.com

Abstract

Background Diabetes prevalence estimates suggest an increasing trend in South-East Asia region, but studies on its incidence are limited. The current study aims to estimate the incidence of type 2 diabetes and pre-diabetes in a population-based cohort from India.

Methods A subset of Chandigarh Urban Diabetes Study cohort (n=1878) with normoglycaemia or pre-diabetes at baseline was prospectively followed after a median of 11 (0.5–11) years. Diabetes and pre-diabetes were diagnosed as per WHO guidelines. The incidence with 95% CI was calculated in 1000 person-years and Cox proportional hazard model was used to find the association between the risk factors and progression to pre-diabetes and diabetes.

Results The incidence of diabetes, pre-diabetes and dysglycaemia (either pre-diabetes or diabetes) was 21.6 (17.8–26.1), 18.8 (14.8–23.4) and 31.7 (26.5–37.6) per 1000 person-years, respectively. Age (HR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01 to 1.04), family history of diabetes (HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.25) and sedentary lifestyle (HR 1.51, 95% CI 1.05 to 2.17) predicted conversion from normoglycaemia to dysglycaemia, while obesity (HR 2.43, 95% CI 1.21 to 4.89) predicted conversion from pre-diabetes to diabetes.

Conclusion A high incidence of diabetes and pre-diabetes in Asian-Indians suggests a faster conversion rate to dysglycaemia, which is partly explained by sedentary lifestyle and consequent obesity in these individuals. The high incidence rates call for a pressing need for public health interventions targeting modifiable risk factors.

  • diabetes & endocrinology
  • epidemiology

Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. The dataset generated and/or analysed during the current study is not publiciliy available but are available from the corrosponding author on a reasonable request.

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Data availability statement

Data are available upon reasonable request. The dataset generated and/or analysed during the current study is not publiciliy available but are available from the corrosponding author on a reasonable request.

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Footnotes

  • RG and SSJ are joint first authors.

  • RG and SSJ contributed equally.

  • Contributors RG and SSJ were involved in conducting house to house survey, data collection, data analysis and manuscript preparation. AR, SKB and AB conceived the idea, assisted in data interpretation, manuscript preparation and editing. NS and SR provided assistance in performing laboratory analysis and manuscript editing. AR is the guarantor of the study and accepts full responsibility for the workand/or the conduct of the study, had access to the data, and controlled decision to publish.

  • Funding The study received grant from Research Society for Diabetes in India (grant number RSSDI/HQ/Grants/2019/878).

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

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