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Prognostic nomogram for patients with minor stroke and transient ischaemic attack
  1. Zhihao Lei1,
  2. Shuanglin Li2,
  3. Hongye Feng1,
  4. Yupeng Lai3,
  5. Yanxia Zhou1,
  6. Chao Li1,
  7. Lijie Ren1
  1. 1Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, Shenzhen, China
  2. 2Department of Forensic Genetics, School of Forensic Medicine, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
  3. 3Department of Rheumatology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, Shenzhen, China
  1. Correspondence to Lijie Ren, Department of Neurology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Shenzhen University, Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, No.3002, Sungang Xi Road, Shenzhen, Guangdong Province, China; renlijie{at}126.com

Abstract

Background Ischaemic stroke and transient ischaemic attack (TIA) share a common cause. We aim to develop and validate a concise prognostic nomogram for patients with minor stroke and TIA.

Methods A total of 994 patients with minor stroke and TIA were included. They were split into a derivation (n=746) and validation (n=248) cohort. The modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores 3 months after onset were used to assess the prognosis as unfavourable outcome (mRS≥2) or favourable outcome (mRS<2).

Result The final model included seven independent predictors: gender, age, baseline National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), hypertension, diabetes mellitus, white blood cell and serum uric acid. The Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram for predicting the outcome was 0.775 (95% CI 0.735 to 0.814), which was confirmed by the validation cohort (C-index=0.787 (95% CI 0.722 to 0.853)). The calibration curve showed that the nomogram-based predictions were consistent with actual observation in both derivation cohort and validation cohort.

Conclusion The proposed nomogram showed favourable predictive accuracy for minor stroke and TIA. This has the potential to contribute to clinical decision-making.

  • Neurology
  • Stroke
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Footnotes

  • CL and LR contributed equally to this work.

  • Contributors ZL conceptualised the study. ZL and SL analysed and interpreted the data, and drafted the manuscript. HF, YL and YZ collected the data. CL and LR contributed to the critical revision of the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

  • Funding This work was supported by the Science and Technology Research and Development Fund of Shenzhen (no. KJYY20180703165202011), Shenzhen Science and Technology Plan Project (no. JCYJ2017081 81 63505 850).

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Patient consent for publication Not required.

  • Ethics approval In accordance with the Declaration of Helsinki guidelines, the current study was performed and approved by the institutional medical ethical committee of the Shenzhen Second People’s Hospital, Shenzhen, China.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.

  • Data availability statement Data are available upon reasonable request.

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