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Real-world observational study of assessment of CHA2DS2-VASc, C2HEST and HAVOC scores for atrial fibrillation among patients with rheumatological disorders: a nationwide analysis
  1. Wei Syun Hu1,2,
  2. Cheng Li Lin3
  1. 1 Division of Cardiovascular Medicine, Department of Medicine, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
  2. 2 School of Medicine, College of Medicine, China Medical University, Taichung, Taiwan
  3. 3 Management Office for Health Data, China Medical University Hospital, Taichung, Taiwan
  1. Correspondence to Dr Wei Syun Hu, Taichung, Taiwan; WEISYUNHU{at}GMAIL.COM


Purpose This is a nationwide-based retrospective study aiming to compare the three different scoring systems (CHA2DS2-VASc, C2HEST and HAVOC scores) in the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) in patients with rheumatological disease.

Methods We used the Fine and Gray model to estimate the risk of AF (subhazard ratio and 95% CI). The predictive accuracy and discriminatory ability of the predictive model were evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

Results Among the three predictive models, the model using CHA2DS2-VASc score had the better discriminative ability with an ROC of 0.79. The model with C2HEST score had an ROC of 0.78. The discriminative ability of the HAVOC score was 0.77, estimated by ROC.

Conclusion We concluded the CHA2DS2-VASc score has better performance in predicting AF compared with C2HEST score or HAVOC score.

  • epidemiology
  • rheumatology

Data availability statement

No data are available.

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Data availability statement

No data are available.

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  • Contributors All authors contributed to the manuscript. All were involved in the design of the study, collected the data, performed the statistical analysis, wrote the manuscript and were involved in the final approval of the manuscript.

  • Funding This study was supported in part by Taiwan Ministry of Health and Welfare Clinical Trial Center (MOHW109-TDU-B-212-114004), China Medical University (CMU110-AWARD-01) and China Medical University Hospital (DMR-HHC-110-4).

  • Competing interests None declared.

  • Provenance and peer review Not commissioned; externally peer reviewed.