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Prognostic indicators and generation of novel risk equations for estimation of 10-year and 20-year mortality following acute coronary syndrome
  1. Caroline J Magri1,2,
  2. Roberto Debono3,
  3. Neville Calleja3,
  4. Joseph Galea2,4,
  5. Stephen Fava2,5
  1. 1Department of Cardiology, Mater Dei Hospital, Msida, Malta
  2. 2University of Malta Medical School, Mater Dei Hospital, Msida, Malta
  3. 3Directorate Health Information & Research, Mater Dei Hospital, G'Mangia, Malta
  4. 4Department of Cardiac Services, Mater Dei Hospital, Msida, Malta
  5. 5Department of Medicine, Diabetes & Endocrine Centre, Mater Dei Hospital, Msida, Malta
  1. Correspondence to Dr Caroline J Magri, Catheterisation Laboratory, Department of Cardiology, Mater Dei Hospital, Tal-Qroqq, Msida MSD 2090, Malta; caroline.j.magri{at}


Objectives Although risk assessment is an integral part of management, there are currently no risk calculators of long-term mortality after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The aim was to provide risk equations for 10-year and 20-year mortality following ACS.

Methods Patients hospitalised with ACS from December 1990 to June 1994 were recruited and followed up through 31 December 2012.

Results The study followed 881 patients for 10 years and 712 patients for 20 years. Using Cox regression analysis, 20-year all-cause mortality was associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in the index admission, age and diabetes mellitus (DM). Twenty-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cardiac mortality were both associated with MI in the index admission, age, DM and female gender. 10-year all-cause mortality was associated with age and total cholesterol levels; age, DM and total cholesterol levels were found to be independent predictors of 10-year CVD and cardiac mortality. Risk equations were consequently generated for 10-year and 20-year cardiac, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, with age and DM emerging as the strongest and most consistent predictors of all outcomes studied.

Conclusions Novel risk equations for all-cause, cardiovascular and cardiac mortality at 10 and 20 years were generated using follow-up data in a large patient population.

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